Why were mortgage rates so high in 1981?
Runaway Inflation Kills Housing
As we headed into the 80s, it's important to note that the country was in the middle of a recession, largely caused by the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The second oil shock caused skyrocketing inflation. The cost of goods and services rose, so fittingly, mortgage rates did too.
As a result of tighter monetary policy and higher inflation, mortgage rates increased to a peak of 18 percent in 1981. As mortgage rates reached levels unseen before or since, homes became significantly less affordable and home sales fell.
The fed funds rate has never been as high as it was in the 1980s. The main reason is because the Fed wanted to combat inflation, which soared in 1980 to its highest level on record: 14.6 percent.
1981: The all-time high for mortgage rates
The average mortgage rate in 1981 was 16.63 percent. And that's just the average — some people paid more. For the week of Oct. 9, 1981, mortgage rates averaged 18.63%, the highest weekly rate on record, and almost five times the 2019 annual rate.
These arrangements had names including contract for deed, wraparound mortgage, and lease with an option to buy. An article from June 1981 written in the Washington Post said that these creative financing loans accounted for more than 50% of home re-sales in several areas of the country.
The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
Elevated interest rates, lack of affordability, low inventory and slow sales were all hallmarks of the early 1980s market. Demographic changes were also similar, with a large number of people moving into the prime homebuying age. Falling inflation and stabilizing mortgage rates helped the '80s market get back on track.
In October 1981 a typical home cost $70,398. But with mortgage rates averaging 18.45% that month, the $870 monthly payment took up about 55% of the median income at the time, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data company. By October 1986, rates had dropped to 9.97% and a typical home was $91,488.
In many regions a real estate bubble, it was the impetus for the subprime mortgage crisis. Housing prices peaked in early 2006, started to decline in 2006 and 2007, and reached new lows in 2011. On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported the largest price drop in its history.
What stopped inflation in the 80s?
Over time, greater control of reserve and money growth, while less than perfect, produced a desired slowing in inflation. This tighter reserve management was augmented by the introduction of credit controls in early 1980 and with the Monetary Control Act.
Average 30-year mortgage rates started the decade at 12.85%. Then after a brief drop in the spring of 1980, started marching higher until they peaked at 18.63% in October 1981. By the end of the decade, rates had dropped back down to just under 10%.
Key Takeaways:
The highest the federal funds rate has ever soared was to 20% in December 1980.
It's possible that rates will one day go back down to 3%, though if current trends hold that's not likely to happen anytime soon.
The ten-year Treasury bond rate increased from about 11 percent in October 1980 to more than 15 percent a year later, possibly because the market believed the Fed would back down from its tight policy when unemployment rose (Goodfriend and King 2005).
In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the high-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances. To understand what a favorable mortgage rate looks like for you, get quotes from a few different lenders and compare them.
Mortgage rates were high in the 1980s, but home prices were a lot less expensive, too. In October 1981 a typical home cost $70,398. But with mortgage rates averaging 18.45% that month, the $870 monthly payment took up about 55% of the median income at the time, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data company.
Enter the Federal Reserve, which started raising interest rates to bring inflation back under control. By the time Scharff wrote his story, mortgage rates had surged to 15% (a huge jump, given that rates averaged between 8% and 10% from 1973 to 1978). Many buyers couldn't afford the higher mortgage payments.
Interest rates reached their highest point in modern history in October 1981 when they peaked at 18.63%, according to the Freddie Mac data. Fixed mortgage rates declined from there, but they finished the decade at around 10%. The 1980s were an expensive time to borrow money.
In the fall of 1981, the average 30-year mortgage rate reached an all-time high of 18.63%. We'll examine mortgage trends for the past five decades and look ahead to see what borrowers can expect in 2024.
What percentage of mortgages are 30 year fixed rate?
With all this boosting it, there's little wonder the 30-year-fixed remains America's favorite type of mortgage: Despite abundant options at record-setting low rates, 90% of homeowners still choose a 30-year fixed mortgage, according to Washington-backed mortgage-guarantor Freddie Mac.
Some lenders' 40-year mortgage rates may be just a fraction of a percentage point higher than the rate on 30-year loans, while other lenders may impose a significantly higher rate.
Home Prices & Price per Square Foot
An analysis of this jump from Home Bay, a California-based real estate company, shows the median price per square foot for a single-family house has risen 310% since 1980. When adjusted for inflation, that's an increase of 24.6%.
Sure, housing was cheaper, but that is partially because houses were considerably smaller. In 1980, the median size of a new home in the U.S. was 1,595 square feet. Today the median size of a new family home is 2,312 square feet.
From the peak of 4 million existing-home sales in 1978, there was -50% drop in home sales over the next four years, so that by 1982 only 2 million homes were sold (data here, Table 7). It took almost two decades, or until 1996, before home sales exceeded the 1978 level of 4 million units.
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