What if the Fed wants to decrease the money supply?
Open Market Operations
If the Fed wants to decrease the money supply, it can sell bonds, thereby reducing the reserves of the member banks that buy them. Because these banks would then have less money to lend, the money supply would decrease.
So the first thing that happens with a decrease in the money supply is that interest rates rise. As interest rates rise, businesses are less willing to invest to borrow for investment spending. And consumers, too, are less willing to borrow to buy cars and homes and so on. Thus spending decreases.
Today, the Fed uses its tools to control the supply of money to help stabilize the economy. When the economy is slumping, the Fed increases the supply of money to spur growth. Conversely, when inflation is threatening, the Fed reduces the risk by shrinking the supply.
Limiting the money supply can slow down inflation, as the Fed intends. But there is also the risk that it will slow economic growth too much, leading to more unemployment.
If the Fed were to incur losses, it would have no detrimental effect on its monetary policy tools, such as open market operations (OMOs) or setting the federal funds rate. The Fed would still be able to raise or lower interest rates or buy and sell securities on the open market in order to influence the economy.
Government backs the money supply.
In the United States, the money supply is backed up by the government, which guarantees to keep the value of the money supply relatively stable.
Deflation, also called negative inflation, provides consumers with lower prices for goods and services.
The drop stems mostly from changes in Fed policy and rising interest rates, but it says little about the prospects for inflation or the likelihood of recession, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
When the money supply decreases, other things being equal, real interest rates rise and investment spending falls. If the Fed sells bonds, the short-run impact of this policy will tend to include: an increase in real interest rates.
What happens in the long run when money supply decreases?
The long-run effect of a decrease in the money supply, then, is that the aggregate price level decreases, but aggregate output is back at potential output. In the long run, a monetary contraction decreases the aggregate price level but has no effect on real GDP.
If the Fed decreases the money stock, then the curve will move towards the left direction, but the interest rate will rise.
There are two kinds of national debt: intragovernmental and public. Intragovernmental is debt held by the Federal Reserve and Social Security and other government agencies. Public debt is held by the public: individual investors, institutions, foreign governments.
Prior to 1971, the US dollar was backed by gold. Today, the dollar is backed by 2 things: the government's ability to generate revenues (via debt or taxes), and its authority to compel economic participants to transact in dollars.
Over the past century, governments have moved away from the gold standard. Currencies now are almost universally backed by the governments that issue them. An example of a fiat currency is the dollar. The U.S. government officially ended the relationship between gold and the dollar in 1976.
In the past 60 years, the United States has experienced deflation only two times; in 2009 with the Great Recession and in 2015, when the CPI barely broke below 0% at −0.1%.
Deflation can be worse than inflation if it is brought about through negative factors, such as a lack of demand or a decrease in efficiency throughout the markets.
To summarize, when you have deflation, the value of your real estate drops, the cash flows drop, and if you are using leverage, those drops are amplified by the amount of leverage you are using. Remember, do not have a mortgage if we have deflation.
Just as Congress and the president control fiscal policy, the Federal Reserve System dominates monetary policy, the control of the supply and cost of money.
What creates inflation? Long-lasting episodes of high inflation are often the result of lax monetary policy. If the money supply grows too big relative to the size of an economy, the unit value of the currency diminishes; in other words, its purchasing power falls and prices rise.
Does a decrease in money supply cause inflation?
To summarize, the money supply is important because if the money supply grows at a faster rate than the economy's ability to produce goods and services, then inflation will result. Also, a money supply that does not grow fast enough can lead to decreases in production, leading to increases in unemployment.
Expansionary fiscal policy increases the level of aggregate demand, either through increases in government spending or through reductions in taxes. Expansionary fiscal policy is most appropriate when an economy is in recession and producing below its potential GDP.
The Fed raises interest rates to slow the amount of money circulating through the economy and drive down aggregate demand.
An increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate for a given price level and output A decrease in the money supply raises the interest rate for a given price level and output. An increase in national income increases the equilibrium interest rate for a given price level.
Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with monetary policy. An increase in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand curve shifting to the right. A decrease in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand curve shifting to the left.
References
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/111414/what-difference-between-inflation-and-deflation.asp
- https://www.cnbc.com/select/tips-for-getting-your-first-100k/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commercialbank.asp
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/who-owns-the-federal-reserve-banks
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/247572/breakdown-of-the-value-of-currency-in-circulation-in-the-us/
- https://apacentrepreneur.com/why-cant-nations-around-the-globe-print-money-to-get-rich/
- https://www.investopedia.com/what-would-happen-if-the-fed-incurred-losses-7963676
- https://www.frbservices.org/resources/financial-services/cash/faq/coin-currency.html
- https://www.vaia.com/en-us/textbooks/economics/macroeconomics-22nd/money-banking-and-financial-institutions/q5-what-backs-the-money-supply-in-the-united-states-what-det/
- http://pholleran.asp.radford.edu/505_fall06_notes_monetary_PolicyWorks.html
- https://www.fool.com/terms/f/fiat-currency/
- https://www.wheaton.edu/academics/academic-centers/wheaton-center-for-faith-politics-and-economics/resource-center/articles/2021/understanding-the-money-supply/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/11/successful-ways-government-reduces-debt.asp
- https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/digital-banking-trends/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081415/understanding-how-federal-reserve-creates-money.asp
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_14986.htm
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_denominations_of_United_States_currency
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12845.htm
- https://www3.nd.edu/~cwilber/econ504/504book/outln13d.html
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/annual-report/2009/the-power-of-money
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/the-federal-reserve-s-control-of-the-money-supply-is-not-precise-because-a-the-amount-of-money-in-the-economy-depends-in-part-on-the-behavior-of-depositors-and-bankers-b-there-are-not-always-government-bonds-available-for-purchase-when-the-fed-wants-t.html
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/053115/how-central-banks-control-supply-money.asp
- https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2023/monetary-policy-and-central-banking
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fractionalreservebanking.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalreservebank.asp
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Monetary-Policy
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-legislative-branch/
- https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/investing-insights/percentage-of-cash-in-my-portfolio.html
- https://www.burbankusd.org/cms/lib/CA50000426/Centricity/Domain/563/34_4E%20-%20The%20Influence%20of%20Monetary%20and%20Fiscal%20Policy%20on%20Aggregate%20Demand.ppt
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/08/fight-recession.asp
- http://pholleran.asp.radford.edu/505_fall06_notes_monetary_Fedtools.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_creation
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Inflation
- https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/causes-of-inflation.html
- https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-osintrobus/chapter/show-me-the-money/
- https://smartasset.com/investing/where-do-billionaires-keep-their-money
- https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S8-C5-1/ALDE_00001066/
- https://www1.udel.edu/htr/American/Texts/fed.html
- https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html
- https://quizlet.com/41494679/ch-16-eco-flash-cards/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/treasury-fed-reserve.asp
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/May-2023-Federal-Reserve-Balance-Sheet-Developments.htm
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/publications/pub_assets/pdf/re/2013/b/reader_exchange.pdf
- https://www.splashlearn.com/math-vocabulary/money/money
- https://aryabhattacollege.ac.in/samplepaper/637212613593443483SUPPLY%20OF%20MONEY(for%20email).pdf
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/structure-federal-reserve-board.htm
- https://pressbooks-dev.oer.hawaii.edu/principlesofeconomics/chapter/30-4-using-fiscal-policy-to-fight-recession-unemployment-and-inflation/
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/explain-what-backs-the-money-supply-in-the-united-states.html
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Banks
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-key-signs-youre-keeping-too-much-money-in-your-savings-account
- https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2023/12/bank-bashing-is-a-popular-past-time--but-is-it-justified-
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-are-some-problems-faced-by-the-fed-in-controlling-the-money-supply.html
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/what-does-too-much-money-in-the-economy-lead-to.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_United_States
- https://www.cga.ct.gov/PS95/rpt/olr/htm/95-R-1200.htm
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency-in-circulation.asp
- https://onlinemba.wsu.edu/blog/the-roles-and-responsibilities-of-the-federal-reserve
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-money-supply-affect-inflation.asp
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealth-makes-unhappy-much-too-180017389.html
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/education/feducation-video-series/episode-1-money-and-inflation
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bankrun.asp
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/
- https://www.lendingtree.com/banking/what-does-a-fed-rate-hike-mean/
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/files/pdfs/publications/pub_assets/pdf/re/2013/b/reader_exchange.pdf
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/centralbanks.asp
- https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0110
- https://www.thebalancemoney.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124
- https://onlinecampus.fcps.edu/media2/Social_Studies/AP_ECON/Topic25/Resources/Module32.pdf
- https://courses.lumenlearning.com/hccs-macroeconomics-3/chapter/the-fed-and-monetary-policy/
- https://study.com/academy/lesson/how-the-reserve-ratio-affects-the-money-supply.html
- https://open.lib.umn.edu/exploringbusiness/chapter/13-3-the-federal-reserve-system/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structure_of_the_Federal_Reserve_System
- https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/10912/economics/what-happens-when-you-destroy-money/
- https://innovativewealth.com/inflation-monitor/deflation-how-a-mortgage-can-destroy-your-real-estate-wealth/
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moneysupply.asp
- https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/680657
- https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-most-important-monetary-policy-tools-used-by-central-banks-to-control-money-supply-in-their-economies
- https://www.quora.com/What-do-banks-do-with-all-the-paper-money-when-it-s-no-longer-good-for-circulation-Do-the-tellers-take-it-home-for-keeps
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/the-fed-explained.htm
- https://vaulted.com/nuggets/what-backs-the-united-states-dollar/
- https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/why-the-us-money-supply-is-shrinking.html
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation
- https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
- https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxii
- https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/wealth-planning/how-much-cash-is-too-much-cash
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/files/the-fed-explained.pdf
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040815/how-does-deflation-impact-consumers.asp
- https://homework.study.com/explanation/when-the-fed-the-money-stock-the-money-supply-curve-shifts-to-the-and-the-interest-rate-everything-else-held-constant-a-decreases-right-rises-b-increases-right-falls-c-decreases-left-falls-d-increases-left-rise.html
- https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2018/july/federal-reserve-control-supply-money
- https://money.com/dollar-scholar-government-print-more-money/
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/how-much-cash-should-you-keep-in-the-bank/
- https://www.richmondfed.org/faqs/fr
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/030915/why-deflation-bad-economy.asp
- https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Money
- https://eml.berkeley.edu/~obstfeld/182_sp06/c14.pdf
- https://www.quora.com/Why-can-t-we-take-money-out-of-circulation-to-increase-its-value
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/importance-money-circulation-stimulating-growth-diego
- https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-inflation-prices-interest-rates-cuts-502ced8f228ee469f84fc6f2eeea6e3e
- https://www.occ.treas.gov/about/index-about.html
- https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/where-do-millionaires-keep-their-money
- https://www.laattorney.com/carrying-large-amounts-of-cash-through-the-airport.html
- https://quizlet.com/207147433/macro-chpt-17-money-the-federal-reserve-flash-cards/
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/07/central-banks.asp
- https://www.worldpackers.com/articles/how-to-live-off-the-grid-with-no-money